Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 11.494985 13.185205 15.010362 17.124259 19.501578 22.088863 25.114121
2025-03-23 9.118980 11.423769 14.108921 17.454101 21.494553 26.200966 32.080915
2025-03-30 8.014708 10.620885 13.806542 17.960045 23.202273 29.565924 37.839021
2025-04-06 6.890978 9.615656 13.095449 17.823043 24.029366 31.844362 42.366152
2025-04-13 5.743901 8.403367 11.938305 16.922648 23.700650 32.517504 44.759940
2025-04-20 5.255825 8.010002 11.798650 17.312675 25.037779 35.364733 50.077807
2025-04-27 4.831118 7.647810 11.647474 17.640585 26.268394 38.091241 55.331176
2025-05-04 4.346650 7.140878 11.233025 17.539554 26.858637 39.933968 59.425020
2025-05-11 3.890735 6.625802 10.752391 17.285772 27.183193 41.384311 62.998036
2025-05-18 3.563787 6.276225 10.483607 17.313023 27.898177 43.400167 67.444389
2025-05-25 3.315546 6.026757 10.343018 17.514113 28.867360 45.811763 72.554872
2025-06-01 3.050178 5.721410 10.084838 17.502244 29.492150 47.719784 76.978728
2025-06-08 2.766954 5.364069 9.721969 17.308368 29.837834 49.250596 80.956628
2025-06-15 2.577514 5.153233 9.584765 17.471327 30.757162 51.703429 86.460482
2025-06-22 2.475707 5.089510 9.689058 18.037961 32.353443 55.274940 93.846991
2025-06-29 2.267178 4.806066 9.385657 17.879688 32.726622 56.900797 98.201702
2025-07-06 1.972387 4.326779 8.691896 16.983571 31.786399 56.335153 98.974956
2025-07-13 1.884591 4.246012 8.718585 17.372435 33.075094 59.484855 105.939768
2025-07-20 1.795588 4.153770 8.715199 17.702211 34.270864 62.521738 112.828685
2025-07-27 1.661064 3.953570 8.489353 17.600570 34.685274 64.243087 117.565449
2025-08-03 1.521215 3.727654 8.194816 17.346095 34.802001 65.447374 121.456612
2025-08-10 1.423862 3.584494 8.052891 17.373397 35.432762 67.563886 126.988759
2025-08-17 1.351721 3.490478 8.002801 17.575128 36.395071 70.297385 133.690202